United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA)

The meaning of the United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA)

A lack of industrialization or decline in certain countries, an increase in extreme poverty in a context of rapid population growth, and a proliferation of ethnic and religious conflicts that could sometimes have been avoided if development and prosperity had been achieved. These are the criticisms that sub-Saharan Africans have levelled at the Organization of African Unity (OAU) and the African Union (AU) since their creation.

It must therefore be acknowledged that all international institutions have failed, with their siloed and fragmented development aid policy (ODA) costing more than €2 trillion in public money over 60 years. At a time when an unprecedented humanitarian and security crisis is looming, a paradigm shift is urgently needed. This is the aim of the more pragmatic United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA) project, which has set itself the goal of industrializing sub-Saharan Africa in less than 20 years.

Neither a federation nor a supranational authority, a model of cooperation that respects the sovereignty of states

The creation of a homogeneous economic community of sub-Saharan African states facing the same demographic and malnutrition issues could prove appropriate. Neither a federation nor a supranational authority, this model of cooperation, which will not undermine the sovereignty of states, could thus promote economic integration, solidarity, and regional stability. More economically operational and executive than political, the group will sometimes have to set aside ideologies in order to better reconcile the imperatives of environmental preservation and industrialization, which will reduce extreme poverty. This alliance, which is more beneficial than restrictive for its members, could initially attract 20 to 40 countries and eventually bring the entire region together around the program.

The transformation of informal activities and jobs will broaden the tax base and provide new resources for African countries. A state's ability to raise taxes is one of the criteria on which financial institutions rely. States will therefore find it easier to borrow. They will be able to finance and build more and more infrastructure and public services independently. The pooling of resources and collaboration within new value chains spread across sub-Saharan African countries will generate cohesion and help to ease ethnic conflicts and improve relations between African nations. The central role of women in the project will help to curb population growth within two generations and thus prevent the predicted humanitarian chaos.

The United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA) project differs radically from the pan-African political concept of the "United States of Africa" born in 1924, revived in the 1940s and relaunched in 2007 by Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi, who advocated a single, authoritarian federal state. However, these attempts to establish the United States of Africa as a political federation have never gained the support of African nations that wish to retain their sovereignty.

60 years of official development assistance (ODA), 50 years of ECOWAS, the OAU plan in 1980 and the AU plan in 2015, or the policies of international institutions, the industry of sub-Saharan Africa has never taken off and has sometimes regressed in certain countries. Perhaps it is time to change the model

Towards reduced official development assistance (ODA)

Public money spent on official development assistance (ODA) has often been wasted over the past six decades. Its lack of efficiency is frequently due to misappropriation and loss of funds. Scattered across a myriad of costly organizations, donations rarely serve their original purpose of economic development. The US recently announced the elimination of 92% of USAID's overseas program funding, and European ODA could fall by 30 or 40% over the next few years. Sub-Saharan African countries will be among the most affected.

Why the specific creation of the United States of Sub-Saharan Africa is necessary

The broader the spectrum, the less likely it is to bring people together. The overly broad framework of the African Union (AU) prevents it from uniting people, and its multiple objectives have led to 60 years of stagnation. We must not repeat the same mistakes. The direction must be precise and the vision clear. Belonging to the same continent does not automatically motivate all countries to unite. Take the United States, for example, which does not include Canada, Mexico, Cuba, or other countries in Central and South America. An economic union of states with mostly differing interests is rarely beneficial to all of its member countries. Economic, historical, cultural, sociological, and geopolitical factors must be taken into account. The framework of a sub-Saharan African union therefore seems more appropriate.

Similarly, the political or ideological axis of Europe-Mediterranean-Africa development, often advocated by French politicians whose interests or ties to the Maghreb countries have sometimes been demonstrated, raises questions. This lobbying, also carried out by the European Union but also by the United States of America with a US-Maghreb-Africa axis, promotes the creation of technological, industrial, and financial hubs on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. However, it may seem inappropriate as it is likely to establish an economic, political, and religious hierarchy between the Arab countries of the north of the continent and those of sub-Saharan Africa. It is unclear whether sub-Saharan Africans appreciate these maneuvers and the obvious preference.

To stabilize sub-Saharan Africa, a balance must first be restored. The few Mediterranean countries concerned have less than 100 million inhabitants, while the 48 sub-Saharan countries have a population 13 times larger and an area four times greater. However, neither the Mediterranean countries nor the international institutions nor the Europe-Africa conferences, which maintain confusion between the regions of this immense continent, have ever been mandated by the 1.3 billion inhabitants of the sub-Saharan states to speak on behalf of the whole of Africa and thus subject their industrialization and development to the whims of political powers with conflicting interests. This policy reflects a Western misunderstanding of Africa and an outdated vision that resembles colonialism by proxy. It accentuates a divide that has been observed for several years. Of course, one could argue that large companies set up where the safety of their personnel is best assured, but the EUAS/USSA provide solutions.

The end of the dream of a certain future in France is another reason to modernize Africa.

With 15 to 18 million people originating from the neighboring continent, France has the largest African diaspora in Europe and the second largest in the Western world after the US. But the hopes of a better life for immigration candidates will most often be disappointed: 5 million people in poor housing, including more and more women and children sleeping on the cold sidewalks of Paris, thousands of unaccompanied foreign minors (MNA) wandering the streets and being recruited into criminal networks to deal drugs, commit theft and sometimes murder, 20,000 girls aged 12 to 17 placed under the protection of Child Welfare Services (ASE) but under the control of pimps, sell their bodies, many migrants succumb to crack cocaine, violent behavior and growing insecurity for women, minimum wages that no longer cover rent, heating, and food, and overwhelmed public services in education, health, and policing.

French governments promote high levels of immigration, which artificially inflates national GDP growth figures, which have been sluggish since the early 2000s, and thus conceals the failure of their economic policies. The number of legal and illegal migrants arriving in France reaches 500,000 each year. The tens of billions of euros of public money borrowed on the capital markets and then paid to new consumers give the illusion of a dynamic economy, even though many of the purchases financed are imported and do not create industrial jobs. It is clear to everyone that highly indebted France will not be able to continue this policy of reckless expansion or financial cavalry for much longer. Among the other harmful effects is the weakening of previously arrived families of African origin who, like all those exposed to poverty, believe that the latest waves of immigration are making them even more vulnerable to problems of housing, employment, and insecurity. Other EU countries are experiencing similar difficulties to varying degrees.

The offensive by China and a few other countries against France and the West is impoverishing Africans.

The EU, including France and the US, has a total diaspora of around 100 million people of African origin. Although they have often adopted the nationality of their host country, they regularly transfer part of their income to their families who have remained in Africa. This annual amount of $100 billion helps to bring some political and economic stability to regions plagued by multiple difficulties. But when Western countries weaken, it is the households of recent immigrants who become the poorest or are most affected by unemployment. They then have to cut back on the amounts sent to families who sometimes depend on these subsidies to feed themselves. Furthermore, when French companies extract energy resources or critical minerals in Africa, the billions of euros in French taxes they pay finance public aid and services that benefit African families in France as well as others, and contribute to general economic activity that provides employment for the greatest number of people. Oil also powers the cars that take their children to school, and uranium fuels the nuclear power plants that provide them with light, heat, and all the conveniences of modern life.

But when a Chinese company arrives with its own staff and considers that only a few very menial jobs, or jobs bordering on slavery, such as those performed by tens of thousands of children digging in mines, can be filled by local labor, there is nothing else to expect but the payment of a modest concession fee, which is often undervalued. For Africans living in France and those residing in Africa will never reap the benefits of the enrichment of China or other countries such as Turkey, India, Russia, the Middle East, etc. Economic interdependencies between sub-Saharan Africa and Western countries hosting African diasporas are a certainty. Thus, when an African state considers negotiating an advantageous contract with certain countries, it may in fact impoverish a diaspora that will ultimately reduce its contribution to the economy by hundreds of millions or billions of euros.

The origins of the industrialization program in sub-Saharan Africa

The 360° methodology of the United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA) offers a holistic approach based on the synchronization of all vectors of development. This last component is the result of a synthesis of economic forecasting work undertaken over several years, including the Europe-Africa Production Regionalization Plan, which advocates significant collaboration between Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa to transfer the industrial know-how and technologies essential for development, the Program for the Industrialization of Sub-Saharan Africa in Less Than 20 Years, which sets out a concrete plan worth €1 trillion (US$1 trillion) financed by a dedicated fund, and Africa Atlantic Axis, which charts new export routes during African industrialization. The International Convention for a Global Minimum Wage would accelerate the eradication of extreme poverty and malnutrition.

The solutions put forward are themselves the result of our research and thousands of pages written over more than 15 years on the structural and financial imbalances that have been destroyed within Western economies and the responses to be provided, some of which have been published in French and foreign national media.

How to finance sub-Saharan industrialization

The investment fund dedicated to the "program for the industrialization of sub-Saharan Africa" will need to raise €1 trillion over 20 years. It will be funded by private capital and the transfer of a portion of the annual allocation ($224 billion in 2023) of bilateral and multilateral official development assistance (ODA) provided by the 32 countries of the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC). We could also allocate a portion of the $300 billion in annual loans or grants pledged to developing countries under COP 29.

The industrialization program will be organized as follows: 30% will be devoted to the creation of 100 modern and secure industrial and commercial zones in some 40 countries. 40% will go towards loans to local and foreign companies and investments in high-potential projects. 30% will be used to build 100 eco-friendly cities close to industrial zones that will accommodate 150-200 million inhabitants.

It is certain that donor countries will prefer to convert their public money into private capital placed in an investment fund that will preserve and reward them. This sound management of public funds, previously spent without return and with little efficiency in terms of the development of the countries receiving aid, will satisfy everyone. The amounts will be deductible from the annual aid contributions proportional to gross national income (GNI) recommended by the UN.

Nevertheless, until the industrial projects produce results, we will need to use compensation mechanisms and rely on external investments in order to meet profitability requirements and thus guarantee investor countries a minimum return from the first year. The clear direction of our financial and industrial ecosystem concept, which will break new ground, will appeal to the financial and business world seeking opportunities in a changing global geopolitical environment.

Governance and the transitional and evolving nature of the structure

Initially a private and operational management tool, the EUAS/USSA will, at the end of its mission, become an official African reference organization, guaranteeing regional unity and the interests of its member countries. In order to achieve this, but also to best meet the expectations of hundreds of millions of Africans in terms of eradicating extreme poverty and malnutrition, employment, security, and modernization of the region, the governance of the executive entity that will lay the foundations for the construction of the future international institution will be structured around a strong and experienced team of the highest caliber, composed of the project's founder, a president, managing directors, and project managers who are among the world's leading specialists in each field. Their determination and efficiency will ly convince financial markets and large companies to join the program and create activity.

Without security, it will be difficult to attract capital and large Western companies.

Colonel Muammar Gaddafi wanted a United States of Africa army to defend the continent against external aggression or to take the fight beyond its borders. But apart from perhaps China, which has begun to exploit Africa to appropriate its rare earths and agricultural land, it is hard to see who would be crazy enough to declare war on 48 countries. What is needed, therefore, is an army adapted to current security issues, with both a military and a police role, and men who are perfectly trained and experienced in warfare to confront a jihadist threat that is sometimes guided and financed by foreign powers who take advantage of the resulting disorder to enrich themselves or impose their ideology. This force must also be capable of resolving ethnic conflicts between local populations in a humane manner. In this regard, the creation of a new level of jurisdiction would go hand in hand. Beyond the security issue, a strong army and impartial justice will be vectors of African unity and pride. This will build the Africa of tomorrow.

Protecting the new industrial zones and the most coveted mining sites will require a force of 100,000 to 120,000 men by 2040/2050, with a target of 40,000 men by 2030, supervised, trained, and well-armed, mobile and equipped with rapid response capabilities, housed in military bases, properly remunerated, and incorruptible. At the same time, a military peacekeeping and intervention force, which will grow to 600,000 men by 2050, will be added to the first force and could pacify the entire region or prevent other dangerous situations. Furthermore, countries such as the DRC, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, the Central African Republic, and many others that have significant mineral reserves coveted by hostile neighbors or jihadists, and which have already lost or will lose mines, could also consider the benefits of pooling their economic and military resources.

At the current rate of population growth and economic expansion, the region's annual GDP is expected to reach €6 trillion by 2050. An annual military budget of €25 billion for an army of 700,000 men, including land, air, and naval equipment, would represent only 0.4% of that total. By comparison, a country such as India, whose population is close to that of the total population of sub-Saharan Africa, spends $80 billion a year on its military, or 2% of its GDP of $4 trillion, for a force of 3 million active members, half of whom are paramilitary. China spends 1.7% of its GDP on 2.3 million military personnel and $220 billion.

However, given its very different geographical, economic, and political structure, as well as its growing financial dependence on China, which will weigh on budgets and, moreover, gradually imposing its private military companies, it is not even certain that our reasonable and low estimate of military spending can be easily financed by states that will be reluctant to dig into their pockets and will often prefer to maintain their national armies rather than form an African army whose size would guarantee the security of their countries.

But without security, it is difficult to attract capital and industry, and conversely, without prosperity, there is no budget for a modern army. We must therefore break out of this vicious circle by restructuring the economy and creating new resources.

Management mandates to ensure that the army and the economy are financed by new resources

The ad hoc structure, which will bring together a range of specific expertise that even the most well-staffed African governments do not have, will thus be tailored to the greatest challenges. It could be entrusted with tasks that are usually the responsibility of ministries and benefit from the transfer of national powers that are essential to the accomplishment of the overall project, without undermining the sovereignty of states, since this would be more akin, in view of our status, to a management mandate issued for a fixed period to a service provider responsible for negotiating in the best interests of its clients.

These mandates for renegotiation and management entrusted to the EUAS/USSA will be powerful instruments of economic transformation that will sometimes make it possible to circumvent structural obstacles. They will mainly concern commercial and mining contracts, economic and customs flows, ports, and fiscal and social structuring. A mining strategy could multiply mining GDP and public revenues. New customs tariffs will better protect informal jobs from the flood of low-end Chinese products and promote the creation of new jobs in industries. Regional administrative harmonization and a shared database will facilitate cooperation between states and pave the way for a future united Africa.

These measures will generate an additional €2 trillion by 2050 for sub-Saharan Africa, which will finance €400 billion in military spending over 25 years, as well as infrastructure and public services in all countries, and will be added to the €1 trillion industrialization plan. However, other sources of funding are also being explored. The cumulative sums will increase the positive effects on the sub-Saharan region's economy tenfold. In addition, the high level of military pay will give rise to an upper middle class in terms of income, which will reinvest the billions of euros received back into the African economy and also help to better structure civil society. This essential example will provide a valuable model for a youth that is often looking to the West.

A possible complementarity between the EUAS, the AU, and the AfCFTA

Since the creation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1963, replaced by the African Union (AU) in 2002, attempts at economic integration have never been fully successful. The AfCFTA free trade framework is useful but may appear too endogenous and powerless without a solid African industrial base. As a result, these two organizations could remain stagnant for a long time to come. On the other hand, the United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA) project, which benefits from a structured program for the industrialization of sub-Saharan Africa, is already establishing itself as the pragmatic benchmark for industrialization, and its model could progress independently of other existing structures. However, the EUAS is aware of the importance of the political legitimacy that the AU could bring to it. The work accomplished by the AfCFTA to harmonize standards and facilitate intraregional trade also appears useful. Far from being in opposition, these three initiatives could enrich each other: the AU through its diplomacy, the AfCFTA through its trade framework, and the EUAS through its operational efficiency. This synergy would not exclude any institution but would capitalize on their respective strengths. It would thus offer sub-Saharan Africa a credible roadmap for transforming its potential into prosperity.

A major and historic African project that could initiate a new model of society

The founding of the OAU and then the AU were historic events in Africa, but it is regrettable that they lacked a forward-looking vision commensurate with the challenges at stake. Yet in economics, trajectory is fundamental. The region cannot develop and society cannot transform itself positively without strong support from the people. This is the meaning of the socio-economic trajectory that we propose to implement. Designed to promote a new model of society and an African social contract that will benefit the greatest number of people, it could meet the following expectations: reducing poverty and malnutrition, increasing security, political stability, and well-being, promoting development and growth, and enhancing the capacity of local businesses to invest and create jobs. It would also satisfy young Africans, who would have the opportunity to build their future and that of Africa with dignity, instead of having to emigrate out of desperation.

The United States of Sub-Saharan Africa (USSA) project, which is realistic, widely supported, and unparalleled since the first economic considerations a century ago, promises to become the major and historic African project of the coming decades.

Francis Journot is a consultant, entrepreneur, and economic researcher. He is the founder of the United States of Sub-Saharan Africa project and the Program for the Industrialization of Sub-Saharan Africa, or Africa Atlantic Axis. He is also the initiator of the International Convention for a Global Minimum Wage.